Hello neighbors!
As the vibrant colors of autumn fade, a new season settles over Matthews Lake. Winter is a truly magical time here—a season of quiet beauty, essential ecological change, and new opportunities for enjoyment and stewardship.
This article is the first in a new monthly series from the Matthews Lake Association (MLA). Our goal is simple: to share information, deepen our understanding of our incredible lake, and inspire all of us to be the best possible stewards for generations to come.
Let’s look at what the coming months hold, both above and below the ice!
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The 2025-2026 Winter Forecast
Predicting a whole winter is an ambitious undertaking but let’s consider what we know so far! Long-term forecasts rely on major global weather patterns. Here’s a look at what some experts are saying for our region this winter:
The Global Influence: La Niña
The key factor this year is a weak to moderate La Niña condition in the Pacific Ocean1.
- What it is: La Niña is a natural climate pattern characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific.
- Simplified Explanation: Think of the ocean as a giant temperature gauge influencing the global jet stream (the river of air that steers weather systems). When the Pacific is cooler (La Niña), it shifts the jet stream’s path.
- What that means for us: A weak to moderate La Niña typically favors a storm track that brings cooler-than-average temperatures and above-average precipitation (rain or snow)2 . Prepare for a winter that could be colder and potentially snowier than normal!
Other Factors: The Polar Vortex
While the Polar Vortex isn’t a storm itself, its behavior matters.
- What it is: A large area of low pressure and cold air circling the poles.
- When It Matters: A strong vortex keeps the frigid air locked up north. A weak or disrupted vortex can allow chunks of that air to dip southward, bringing sudden and intense cold snaps.
The Takeaway: The forecast suggests a classic pattern: periods of significant cold and snow, with the potential for sharp, frigid bursts. It looks like a great opportunity to fully enjoy true Matthews Lake winter activities!
Life Below the Ice: Understanding Lake Ecology
Once the lake freezes, it’s easy to think everything slows down, but the ecosystem beneath the ice is alive and well! Understanding this process is a huge step in deepening our appreciation and becoming thoughtful stewards.
The Physics of Freeze-Over
Water is unique because it’s densest at 40C (39.20F). This is crucial for lake life!
- In the fall, surface water cools and sinks, mixing the water (fall turnover) and refreshing oxygen throughout the lake.
- Once surface temps drop below 39.20F, the water becomes less dense and stays on top.
- When it hits 320F, it freezes! Because ice is less dense, it floats.
Lake Life Insight: This floating ice layer acts as an insulator, preventing the lake from freezing solid. The water at the bottom remains around 39.20F, creating a safe, relatively warm haven for aquatic life.
The Winter Ecosystem
- Fish Slow Down: Local fish (like bass) become sluggish. They move to deeper, warmer areas and enter a state of torpor—their metabolism slows, requiring far less food and oxygen4.
- The Oxygen Challenge: Once sealed by ice, the lake cannot get fresh oxygen from the air. Oxygen levels slowly decline as aquatic organisms use it up. Heavy snow cover blocks sunlight, preventing plants from creating new oxygen. If the ice stays thick for too long, oxygen can get dangerously low, leading to a potential winter fish kill. Our year-round monitoring and efforts to reduce nutrient runoff during warmer months help mitigate this risk by limiting excess vegetation decay.
Winter Stewardship and Community
This quiet season is the perfect time to enjoy a truly special aspect of our lake.
Quick Winter Stewardship and Safety Tips
Here are three focused ways you can be a better lake steward right now:
- Minimize and Modify De-Icing Salts: Salt washes into our lake and streams, where it is harmful to aquatic life5 and is monitored in our May sampling.
- Action: Shovel early and often. If you must use a melting product, consider alternatives like calcium chloride or urea (found in pet-safe ice melts), or use plain sand for traction6.
- Respect the Shoreline Buffer: Your natural, native vegetation is the lake’s best defense against erosion and pollution, even when dormant7.
- Action: Avoid cutting or clearing plants near the water’s edge. Their roots stabilize the soil against ice heaving and runoff.
- Prioritize Ice Safety: It is paramount. If the ice is thick enough for recreation, be thoughtful.
- Action: NEVER assume the ice is safe; always check local sources for recommended thickness. Avoid large, permanent structures or snow piles, which block sunlight and deplete vital oxygen for fish8.
Essential Ice Safety Equipment
This list provides a starting point for the equipment you should consider. Always perform your own due diligence, check local ice conditions, and verify gear requirements for your specific activity. Never go out alone, and always inform others of your plans.
| Category | Essential Gear |
| Personal Safety (Wearable) | Ice Safety Picks (worn around the neck), Personal Flotation Device (PFD), Whistle/Air Horn. |
| Emergency | Rope Throw Bag (floating rope), Dry Bag with Extra Clothing, First-Aid Kit, Charged Cell Phone (in waterproof case). |
| Testing Ice | Ice Chisel/Spud Bar (to test integrity), Measuring Tape (to confirm thickness—4 inches minimum). |
| Navigation | Headlamp/Flashlight, Compass and Map / GPS Device. |
Critical Safety Reminders
- Ice thickness is never uniform. Avoid areas near inlets, outlets, or permanent structures.
- Never rely on appearance. Clear ice is strongest; snow-covered or cloudy ice is weaker.
- Know the signs of weak ice (dark areas, cracks, or running water).
Stay safe and enjoy the beauty of Matthews Lake this winter!
Connect
Winter brings its own unique set of MLA events (watch our website, Facebook page, and email!)—from holiday gatherings to planning sessions. It’s a fantastic time to meet new neighbors, deepen our community ties, and look out for spontaneous gatherings. This is also a time of unpredictable weather. Don’t be surprised if an unanticipated stretch of beautiful weather inspires a get together!
Be Prepared
We strongly encourage residents to learn more about the fascinating science of lake ecology and, most importantly, always prioritize safety around ice and cold water. The following online resources are great places to start:
- Ice Safety Guidelines: Wisconsin DNR: Ice Safety
- Understanding Lake Ecology (Winter): Wisconsin DNR: Lake Ecology
- Winter Stewardship/Water Quality: Wisconsin Salt Wise
- Weather and Climate Factors: National Weather Service: Climate Prediction Center
Conclusion
We hope this article helps you prepare and look forward to an enjoyable and safe 2025-2026 Matthews Lake winter! May you and your families make many new and wonderful memories. May you also find quiet moments to appreciate the frozen beauty of our lake and take advantage of all its unique winter ecosystem has to offer. By staying informed and practicing careful stewardship year-round, we can ensure the lake thrives, both above and below the ice.
Let’s continue to learn, serve, and enjoy Matthews Lake together.
End Notes (In Order of Appearance)
- Long-term forecasts from November 2025 indicate a La Niña condition is favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2025-2026, likely remaining weak and transitioning to ENSO-neutral in early 2026.
- Historically, weak to moderate La Niña patterns have been associated with a storm track that favors above-average precipitation and cooler-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the United States.
- The unique property of water reaching its maximum density at 39.20F is essential for the survival of aquatic life in temperate lakes, as it prevents the entire water column from freezing solid.
- Torpor is a state of decreased physiological activity in an animal, usually by a reduced body temperature and metabolic rate, that occurs during periods of adverse environmental conditions, like cold temperatures in fish.
- Runoff from de-icing salts is a major non-point source of pollution. The salt can accumulate in groundwater and lakes, altering the water’s natural chemistry and disrupting the habitat of freshwater organisms.
- The use of excessive traditional rock salt (sodium chloride) can dramatically increase the salinity (saltiness) of lake water, stressing or killing aquatic plants and animals. Alternatives are generally less toxic.
- Naturalized shorelines with deep-rooted native vegetation act as a critical buffer, filtering pollutants, absorbing excess water, and stabilizing soil against the forces of ice, wind, and erosion throughout the winter.
- General guidelines suggest at least 4 inches of new, clear ice for walking and ice fishing. Ice thickness can vary dramatically, and the insulating effect of snow can weaken it significantly. Always check multiple spots and be prepared for the worst.